The Science of Conjecture. Evidence and Probability before Pascal (Relié)

James Franklin

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  • Johns Hopkins

  • Paru le : 11/09/2001
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BEFORE PASCAL AND FERMAT'S discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654, how did we make reliable predictions? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. Sometimes this type of reasoning avoided numbers entirely, as in the legal standard of "proof beyond a reasonable doubt"; at other times it involved rough numerical estimates, such as gambling odds or the level of risk in chance events. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty. Everyone can take a rough account of risk, Franklin argues, but understanding the principles of probability and using them to improve performance is an immense task - a task that had to be learned over the course of human history, just as we had to train ourselves to become aware of the principles of perspective. The theme of this study is the coming to consciousness of human understanding of risk. A well-reasoned and highly readable study, The Science of Conjecture makes an important contribution to intellectual history and the history of science.
    • The Ancient Law of Proof
    • The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and Inquisition
    • Renaissance Law
    • The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
    • Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
    • Hard Science
    • Soft Science and History
    • Philosophy: Action and Induction
    • Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature
    • Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets
    • Dice
  • Date de parution : 11/09/2001
  • Editeur : Johns Hopkins
  • ISBN : 0-8018-6569-7
  • EAN : 9780801865695
  • Présentation : Relié
  • Nb. de pages : 500 pages
  • Poids : 0.845 Kg
  • Dimensions : 16,5 cm × 24,5 cm × 3,3 cm

Biographie de James Franklin

JAMES FRANKLIN is a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of New South Wales.

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The Science of Conjecture. Evidence and Probability before...
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