The Mispricing Game: Systematic Edge in Kalshi NBA Contracts

Most participants in prediction markets are not trading probability. They are reacting to narratives, emotions, and crowd momentum. The Mispricing Game explains why Kalshi NBA contracts are repeatedly mispriced - and how disciplined traders can extract systematic edge from those errors without relying on picks, hype, or intuition. Rather than focusing on outcomes, this book reveals the structural forces that distort prices: favorite bias, time value blindness, information latency, and predictable crowd behavior.
Across a tightly structured framework, readers learn how to identify mispricing windows, build rules-based execution protocols, and design position architecture that protects capital while capturing expected value. The emphasis is not on winning every trade, but on operating a repeatable system that performs under pressure and across a full season of markets. Written for serious traders and analytically minded readers, The Mispricing Game provides a durable decision framework that extends beyond Kalshi and beyond sports - applicable to any environment where crowds systematically misjudge risk.