THE CONVEXITY

For eleven years, Meridian Capital has done what almost nobody on Wall Street manages to do: make fear profitable. The hedge fund's returns are remarkably smooth, its models sophisticated, its founder, Adrian Vale, famous for staying calm when everyone else loses their nerve. Daniel Kessler, Meridian's head of risk, has spent years believing that Vale's confidence is one of the firm's greatest strengths.
Then a currency peg breaks. What begins as a distant sovereign crisis quickly becomes something much harder to model. Positions that were supposed to offset one another start losing money at the same time. Banks demand more collateral. Investors begin to leave. Liquidity disappears faster than anyone expected. And buried in Meridian's files is a stress scenario Daniel ran months earlier-one that looked disturbingly similar to what is now happening.
He saw the danger. He classified it as too unlikely to matter. Over the next few days, as billions of dollars and entire careers hang on decisions made hour by hour, Daniel has to confront a question more unsettling than whether the models failed: how much of his judgment had quietly become borrowed from someone else?The Convexity is a financial thriller about markets, leverage, and the strange ways intelligent people convince themselves that the unlikely can safely be ignored.
But beneath the money and mathematics, it is a novel about something simpler: what happens when confidence becomes contagious, responsibility becomes shared, and being right is no longer enough to survive.