Thinking in Bets. Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success is to think in bets : How sure am I ? What are the possible ways things could turn out ? What decision has the highest odds of success ? What is the influence of luck in my past successes and failures ? What is the influence of skill ? Ina book that's become a classic, former World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions.
You'll learn how to : Better determine whether a good outcome was a result of luck or skill ; Be more open to dissenting viewpoints to improve decision-making abilities ; Embrace uncertainty in planning for future decisions. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making.
You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.