Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction
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- Nombre de pages340
- PrésentationBroché
- FormatGrand Format
- Poids0.251 kg
- Dimensions12,8 cm × 19,8 cm × 2,0 cm
- ISBN978-1-84794-715-4
- EAN9781847947154
- Date de parution07/04/2016
- ÉditeurRandom House Business Books
Résumé
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future ? Whether in our careers or our personal lives, every decision we make involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. The problem is, we're not very good at making them. Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock decided to address that problem. In an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament, he found apparently ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who had an extraordinary ability to predict the future.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner provide a fascinating insight into the methods used by this elite group, and offer practical advice on how we can employ them ourselves - in business, in international affairs, and even in our everyday lives. We can all harness the power of the superforecasters.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner provide a fascinating insight into the methods used by this elite group, and offer practical advice on how we can employ them ourselves - in business, in international affairs, and even in our everyday lives. We can all harness the power of the superforecasters.
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future ? Whether in our careers or our personal lives, every decision we make involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. The problem is, we're not very good at making them. Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock decided to address that problem. In an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament, he found apparently ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who had an extraordinary ability to predict the future.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner provide a fascinating insight into the methods used by this elite group, and offer practical advice on how we can employ them ourselves - in business, in international affairs, and even in our everyday lives. We can all harness the power of the superforecasters.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner provide a fascinating insight into the methods used by this elite group, and offer practical advice on how we can employ them ourselves - in business, in international affairs, and even in our everyday lives. We can all harness the power of the superforecasters.
