Dynamical Paleoclimatology. - Generalized Theory of Global Climate Change

In attempting to account for long-term paleoclimatic variations, we are led to broaden our view of the climate system and to restructure our approach to a fuller theory of climate. The aim of this book is to provide a basis for such a restructured approach. We begin by describing the external forcing of the climate system and the observed response, as represented by proxy evidence for paleoclimatic variations (with emphasis on the ice ages of the late Cenozoic). A theory of the variations is proposed on the basis of concepts from dynamical systems analysis. The role of general circulation models is viewed in a wider perspective as the "equilibrium" component governing only the "fast-response" parts of the full system (e.g., the atmosphere and surface including the biosphere). In contrast, the "slow-response" parts of the system to which the fast-response variables are quasi-statistically equilibrated (for example, the ice sheets and their underlying bedrock and basal states, the deep ocean, and the global carbon inventory) are governed by nonequilibrium (i.e., dynamical) equations. Separate chapters are devoted to the detailed physics of each of these slow-response domains. In the last part of the book, comprising four chapters, we combine all of these components in a unified theory consisting of a closed set of equations, satisfying all conservative requirements, from which the main paleoclimatic variations can be deduced with some additional predictions. Suggestions for further progress toward a more complete theory of climate evolution are made in the last chapter. An extensive bibliography is provided. The book is intended for graduate students and research workers in all the areas of climate theory typically included under such designations as "paleoclimatology," "earth system studies," and "global change research."